Ghost Picks Patrick - 2024 Scottish Open - PGA Golf Analysis - Renaissance Club

Course Intro & Course Fit

The Renaissance Club… Back in the birthplace of golf, Scotland…  This course hosts a mix of euro, links, and traditional golf. With four holes by the ocean that play links style, the rest of the course plays more traditional. Throughout the course, it has links qualities with its firm grounds, and deep DEEP pot bunkers. The greens are also massive and induce links style putting around the greens. This week is a different test for the majority of golfers in the field, but the main test (as always with this course) will be the weather.

The wind, as with any coastal links golf course, plays a major role in this tournament. Over the past 5 years, there has been a mix of conditions. With light winds for 2019, 2021, 2023, the course played much easier at -0.69 per round. But when the coastal breezes are high as in 2020 and 2022, scoring becomes much tougher as evidenced by it averaging +1.46 per round. With light winds predicted early in the week, scoring is a must. 

Key Factors

• Weather/Wind

• Driving Distance

• Links Putting

• Approach (2nd Shot)

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Weather/Wind

With this course being on the coast, it is susceptible to the elements. If the wind picks up, the whole course will feel it. At the moment, there is little to note about the weather. With the course being in Scotland and right on the water, things can change quickly and will need to be monitored throughout the tournament.

Driving Distance 

With hardly any penalty for missing the fairway, the course favors length off the tee. This allows more options on 2nd shots to attack the hard greens. Over the past couple of years of this tournament, long hitters have been all over the top of the leaderboard. While shorter hitters are able to compete, they are at a great disadvantage given the minimal penalty for missing the fairway.

Putting on Links Style Course

The green complexes are wild. They are very firm and some of the largest on tour. Last year (with minimal wind) these greens ranked as the fifth most difficult on the Tour to gain strokes putting. With massive green surfaces, 3-putt avoidance is a major key, as this was one of the worst on the PGA Tour the past couple of years. Not only does this come into play on the green, but also around the greens. With links style, many golfers with opt to use their putter from off the green. Over the years we have seen some golfers take advantage of this, while other have crumbled.

Approach (2nd Shot)

No matter what course you play at, this will always be arguably the most important category. It is especially the case here. With the massive greens, everyone will be hitting the greens at a high rate (if the wind stays down). Those golfers who are able to pin-point their 2nd shot close to the pin will be in a great position to score. Proximity to the flag will be a key stat for those golfers at the top of the leaderboard this week.

Best Bets (Odds FanDuel unless otherwise noted)

To Win Outright:

Ludvig Aberg (+1600)

Min Woo Lee (+3000) *Bet365 

Davis Thompson (+6000)

Byeong Hun An (+6000) 

To Place Top-20: 

Ludvig Aberg (-120)

Tommy Fleetwood (-105)

Davis Thompson (+220)

B Hun An (+230)

Jordan SMITH (+360)

Richie Ramsay (+1200)

Padraig Harrington (+1200)