Ghost Picks Patrick's College Basketball Free Pick of the Day - Bellarmine vs Lousiville
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NCAAB Free Pick
Bellarmine vs Louisville - 7pm EST
Louisville -28.5 (-110) like it up to 30.
This one opened at 24 and shot up to 28 immediately. It has settled at 28.5 - 29 across the board.
This Louisville team is in complete rebuild mode, but they have laid out a DISTINCT blueprint of what they want to do this season. In the first two games, they have played at a fast pace and launched 3s at a ridiculous 57% 3P rate. Pat Kelsey is a great coach from the College of Charleston. He brought some key recruits in with him from Charleston including Reyne Smith one of the best mid-major players in the country. This is a completely different Louisville team from last year, with all key contributors being transfers from other programs. After getting smacked around by a tough, veteran Tennessee team... Louisville will hand it out tonight. In game one vs Morehead St team (who would be a pretty big favorite over Bellarmine), Louisville won by 48. They have plenty of firepower on the offensive end and should control the offensive rebounding margin as well.
As for the defensive end... Louisville is going to be a problem this season. While they may struggle against dominant teams like Tennessee, their style of play forces teams into turnover after turnover. While the Tennessee game was a blowout, any time a team goes 10-19 from 3P, it will be tough to overcome. Add in the Tennessee rebounding advantage and it got ugly. The one area they thrived against Tennessee was in forcing 20 turnovers. That is back to back games with 20+ forced turnovers to start the season. With 10 days off from the Tennessee game, they may be a bit rusty from the field to start, but the rest of their game will carry them in the early minutes. They force you to play at a faster pace and will run a 9-deep rotation of athletes who play pressure defense. Fresh legs...
Bellarmine does have a couple guys that can score, but have zero talent outside of the top-3 and are one of the worst defensive teams in the country. Coughing up turnovers at the 325th worst percentage certainly will not help their cause vs Lousiville who (through two games) has forced turnovers at the highest rate in the country.
Louisville rolls.
-GPP
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