Ghost Picks Patrick - NCAAF Free Top Play of the Day - The Battle of Miami
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NCAAF 7pm EST
Miami Ohio vs Miami Florida
2u Miami Ohio +16.5 (-105) *Consensus (+17 -110 if you have Bet365)
3u Miami Ohio 1H +10 (-110) *Consensus
0.75u Miami Ohio 1H ML (+1000) *Caesars
Let's get crazy. Yesterday, I was on three favorites. Not exactly my style, but you play the numbers... Today, we are on the DAWG!
I am not one for trends. Not my style. I am not ignorant and blind to the fact some trends are insightful. One in particular I have targeted for a little while as it is a PURE VALUE PLAY. Fade Miami at Home. They have one of the worst home-field advantages in football and come out lethargic regularly. Last year, they did not cover a single game at home vs D1 opponents and lost 5/6 outright. The only win came vs Southern Miss who:
1) Did not have a QB
2) We were on Southern Miss 1H & Full game for the Cover
We were also on Middle Tennessee St the next week who covered and won outright. I am not one for trends, but multiple things go into this:
1) Lack of effort
2) Lack of any home-field advantage
3) Opponents passion coming in with the opportunity to upset a big name team
4) Miami just sucks
Both teams return a good portion of their players from last year, so there is not a big advantage one way or another there. Miami Ohio brings back their entire defense and adds USC (California) transfer at corner. This was already the best defense in the MAC and showed out every single game last season. They ranked among the best non-power 5 schools on defense and bring back 9 starters and 13/16 top tacklers from a year ago.
As for the offense, if you are a robot and you look at their stats... There is ZERO reason to back Miami Ohio today. They ranked nearly dead last on offense last year and bring everyone back. Normally, this would not be a good thing. One key component in today's game. The return of QB, Brett Gabbert (younger brother of NFL QB, Blaine Gabbert). In the 4 games he started last year, their offense ranked around the middle of the pack in the country. In the 9 games he did not start, THEY RANKED DEAD LAST. They are being undervalued because of it. The "Real Miami" comes to play today as The U is officially on upset alert in my book.
Let's go Miami (Ohio)!
-GPP
Ghost Picks Patrick
Sports Data Specialist - Ghost Picks ATS
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