Ghost Picks Patrick's Free Play of the Day - Chargers vs Texans
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NFL Wild Card Analysis
NFL 4pm EST
3u Texans ML (+135) *Consensus
The Texans have underperformed all season. The Chargers have overperformed. Pre-season,
this line would have been AT LEAST Texans -3.5... The Chargers under Jim Harbaugh have
been great and Herbert is one of my favorite quarterbacks in the NFL. The one thing that is
undeniable... They have beaten nobody all season with their best wins being the Broncos &
Bengals. They beat the Broncos twice and were 0-5 against the other playoff teams. Wins
against the Raiders (2x), Panthers, Saints, Browns, Titans, & Pats. Just a cakewalk. While I am
a big fan of Harbaugh & Herb, they run the ball too damn much and outside of McConkey have no legit weapons. Stingley is one of the best corners in the NFL. Last season, he did not travel with #1 WRs, then in the playoffs he did. It should be the same this year. As for LAC on defense, if you only look at the numbers, the Chargers had one of the best defenses in the NFL. I think that is fugazi, fugasi, fairy dust, it doesn’t exist. They played the worst lineup of QBs in the NFL. They gave up an average of 11 points per game in 9 games vs Minshew, Bryce Young (pre-turn around), Justin Fields, Spencer Rattler, Jameis Winston, Will Levis, Kurt Cousins, Drake Maye & Aiden O’Connell. In the other games they gave up an average of 24 per game.
As for the Texans... They have fallen off a cliff. While they did not do anything more impressive than the Chargers from a schedule perspective outside of beating the Bills, they coasted to a division championship. They have had nothing to play for over the last four weeks after locking up the division. They also were missing a key piece to the defense, Al Shaair (Trevor Lawrence hit). Prior to locking up the division, the Texans were considered a top-3 defense... I do not think the past couple of weeks have changed that. Whether or not Stroud and the offense gets it shit together will be the difference in this game. Against the Ravens, he played the worst game of his career. Before that game, he had been solid at home throughout his career. The Texans offense has been night & day over the last two years under Stroud depending on home/away. In Stroud's career at home (Not including the Ravens game. I am throwing that out. Post Tank Dell injury, he just looked lost out there mentally) , he is 11-4 (7-8 on the road), has a 101 passer rating (86 on the road), 27 TDs to 9 INTs (15 to 7 on the road), and 290 yards per game (218 on road). He is a different player. I said the same things before the Ravens game and they got beat to death. I also said they would come out firing for their boy Tank Dell. Both could not have been more wrong. They had nothing to play for in that game and it damn well looked like it.
Barring Herbert putting on a performance for the ages or Stroud playing as bad as he did
against the Ravens... Nico Collins is the best offensive player in this game. He needs to be the primary focus for the Texans to open up the field for everyone. Forget the points and Go Texans.
-GPP
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