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We are in the dog days of summer. Any given day, a team will be an absolute no show... Then the next day, win by 5+ runs. We keep the unit totals down during this time, and look to target value across board. During this stretch, I will be playing some underdogs at good plus money. Calling an underdog is never guaranteed, but by picking & choosing certain situations improves our chances of winning. As it is, we never have games higher than (-125).. We look for long-term profit and doing so playing (-150) favorites is damn near impossible.
Let's keep it rolling.
2-Team Favorites Parlay (+230)
Phillies ML
Mets ML
Phillies vs Pirates
Bailey Falter has been mediocre at best, but the Pirates have not been able to hit LHP at all this year. If you look into Falter's numbers a little deeper, he has not been terrible as a starter, BUT has a huge issue giving up home runs. He gave up 5 hits in his last outing, unfortunately 3 of them were hone runs. Against a Pirates team with one of the lowest slugging percentages vs LHP and mild wind that is blowing to the deep part of PNC Park, all we are looking is for him to keep the ball in the park. As for the Phillies, they have been one of the best hitting teams away from home all year long. Their numbers vs LHP have been solid, and the whole team (THE WHOLE TEAM) has had success in prior meetings vs Quintana. Let's see it again.
Mets vs Marlins
Mets ML
"Fading Sandy Alcantara?... Good luck with that." :)
Alcantara has been on a tear no doubt, but this Mets team has seen him a bunch this season. The last time out, Alcantara got the best of the Mets. The first two outings this season went the Mets way. They hit him hard in all three games, and he was able to dodge some bullets the last time these two teams faced. Sure he gave up zero runs, but the ball bounced in his favor that night. It happens, especially to good pitchers. During his three starts, he has had a low K-rate and high exit velocity. The Mets have hit Alcantara harder than any other team this year.. The Marlins have not been able to hit worth a damn over the past couple of months. The only reason this line is so low, is because of Alcantara. Considering what we are working with, I love the Mets at the number tonight.
Let's root em in.
-GPP
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