Ghost Picks Patrick's Free Play of the Day - USC vs Purdue + BOGO FREE NCAAB Week
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USC vs Purdue
3u USC +13 (-110) *Consensus
0.5u USC ML (+800) *Bet365, DraftKings
This would be a bigger bet if not for the travel. I think these two teams are much more even than the spread indicates. I have been on Purdue a couple times this season as I thought they were pretty underrated for most of the season. This is too many points though. Purdue is playing great basketball, but USC has not been shabby lately themselves.
Since December 7th, if you look at the metrics between these two teams, they are very similar. December 7th is a random date, but it is when Wesley Yates solidified his spot in the USC lineup. The freshman is the real deal and has been their best player during conference play. Outside of a 4-game stretch where Yates rarely played, this USC team has been consistently improving under Eric Musselman.
If I take the numbers just from Dec 7th onwards, I have this closer to a 7-point spread. While the ML is a longshot, at +800 that is a steal for a game I think will be a battle down the stretch.
Both of these teams are smaller across the board, which favors USC in my opinion. Both teams struggle with 2P-defense which is a key for USC in this one. They always struggle on defense at the rim.. It is going to happen with their size. The fact Purdue struggles protecting the rim against a USC team that can attack and shoots a great % around the rim will be the major factor in this one.
-GPP
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